On Rojava, Take the Outside View.

I initially didn’t believe the claims made in the fakestream media that Blompf had “green-lighted” a Turkish invasion of Rojava. It seems I was wrong. Still, I believe the outside view is warranted here. Applying the outside view, I get the following:

  1. For some reason, Turkey hasn’t invaded the bulk of Rojava which is east of the Euphrates.
  2. Thus, the outside view says that barring evidence of a change in circumstances, you should expect Turkey’s behavior in the next few years to be like its behavior in the past few years. All that has changed in recent days is that Blompf said something, and the track record is that when Blompf says something, nothing in the real world changes because of it unless he is doing at the behest of congressional Republicans and/or the deep state. Thus, we should not expect any change in U.S. foreign policy towards Turkey. If the U.S. was what was keeping it from intervening, it will keep doing so, if the U.S. was not what was keeping it from intervening, then that factor will keep keeping it from intervening.

What has actually happened so far? A few civilians have been killed, maybe a few Kurdish military as well. While individually a tragedy, by the scale of the fighting this is still basically nothing. The Kurds have lost ~11,000 fighters in the war against ISIS, this is a blip on the radar. Thus, I predict with 80% confidence that on Oct 9 2020, the majority of Turkey’s “safe zone” on this map will remain under Kurdish control.

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