God creates two universes, one which operates according to the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics, the other some non-MWI interpretation. In both universes, an observer rolls a die and, if the result is anything else than six, paints his house red and stops rolling the die. If he rolls a six, he paints it blue and then rolls it again the next day. One hundred days later, God appears to the inhabitants of every house in every world and asks them to guess if they are in the MWI or non-MWI universe. If they guess correctly that they are in MWI universe, they receive a reward of 1$. If they guess correctly that they are in the non-MWI universe, they get a reward of 10$. If you are an observer in this situation, what is your guess?
Second variation: Like the first, except that God sends a tornado to kill the observer if he paints his house red.
Third variation: Like the first, except that there is only one universe, and God flipped a coin and created one or the other.
Fourth Variation: Like the third, except that God sends a tornado to kill the observer if he paints his house red.
Fifth Variation: Like the third, except now God and his coin is used as a metaphor for the correct theory, based on your physics knowledge you think there is an equal probability of one or the other being true. An experiment is proposed which will definitively answer the question. You are offered 1$ if you correctly guess that the experiment will establish that MWI is true, and 10$ if you correctly guess that non-MWI is true.
Sixth Variation: Like the fifth, except that painting your house red triggers a false vacuum which destroys you and the universe.
In which variation would you go for the 1$ versus the 10$, and why? Is there an answer that is always correct in all the variations?