Don’t do:
- “The person making this report looks credible, no history of attention-seeking behavior, no signs of mental instability or substance abuse problems, no obvious grievances. I see no reason to assume this is a hoax.”
Do ask yourself:
- What proportion of the 320 million Americans are adults with no history of attention-seeking behavior, no signs of mental instability or substance abuse problems, no obvious grievances?
- Of these, what proportion have the ability to fabricate a report with no obvious discrepancies?
- Of these, what proportion would, for whatever reason, actually do it?
- Multiplying 320 million by 1, 2, and 3, do you get a number greater than 1?
Alexander Turok 