UFO Reports

Don’t do:

  1. “The person making this report looks credible, no history of attention-seeking behavior, no signs of mental instability or substance abuse problems, no obvious grievances. I see no reason to assume this is a hoax.”

Do ask yourself:

  1. What proportion of the 320 million Americans are adults with no history of attention-seeking behavior, no signs of mental instability or substance abuse problems, no obvious grievances?
  2. Of these, what proportion have the ability to fabricate a report with no obvious discrepancies?
  3. Of these, what proportion would, for whatever reason, actually do it?
  4. Multiplying 320 million by 1, 2, and 3, do you get a number greater than 1?

 

 

 

 

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