[Epistemic status: highly speculative]
The fear from the Democrats and the hope of Republicans is the Kanye will siphon off Black voters from Biden, despite a recent past of mostly Right-wing political activism. It’s telling that many Democrats, who would howl with outrage at any suggestion that Blacks are on average less intelligent than Whites, fear they will behave this way. Will they, assuming he stays to the end?
It should be obvious that most of Kanye’s votes will come from people with two-digit IQs, smarter voters might joke about it and a few might do it, but they’ll be swamped by the morons who actually like the guy. His voters will be disproportionately young, although it’s possible the youngest voters will consider him a boomer-tier has-been. Whether he’s more beloved by young dumb men or young dumb women (he’s married to Kim Kardashian) is unclear to me, as I have not spent enough time reading the ethnological literature.
The key community for Kanye will be young, dumb Whites who don’t like the elites, don’t like Wall Street, Hollywood, or Washington, but also don’t like the cops, the teachers, basically anyone telling them to pull their d*** pants up. They like their weed. They aren’t too happy with the idea of a peaceful, wealthy civilization where everyone wakes up at 8 o’clock, drives no more than 5 mph above the speed limit, doesn’t cheat on their romantic partner, and never sees explosions outside of the professionally-accomplished fireworks show. They cheer for Trump’s Dumb Prole Act, but their enthusiasm deflates the moment they hear the phrase “law and order.” They don’t want law and order, they want excitement and disorder. They want freedumb, it’s far more important to do things their way than it is to do them the right way. They could never sit through a postmodernist lecture, but if you could explain the basic ideas in words they could understand and remove the anti-White stuff, they’d be in much agreement.
Kanye isn’t a perfect choice for them, since he has embraced many of the same boomer ideas they despise in Trump. Still, that conversion is recent, the young dumb White has a vague sense that eventually he, too, will grow out of the rebel stage, maybe sometime in his 30s, so it doesn’t particularly grate on him. Trump, despite all the sexual adventures, is much more of a lame boomer in their minds, he’s never tried alcohol or drugs and has spent most of his life alternating between the desk and the golf course. While Kanye is on the sidelines, Trump has been President for four years, and in the mind of the young dumb white that means he is in some way responsible for the fact that his weed got seized. (The young dumb White, needless to say, does not differentiate between state and federal law enforcement.)
Most of the above two paragraphs could also be said for young dumb Blacks, but there is a countervailing factor, a stronger sense of communal identity they share with smarter Blacks. This allows the young dumb Black to blame his frustrations on the White power structure. Even if the cop who seized his weed is Black, he can tell himself the man’s only a servant of the White power structure. In contrast, while the young dumb White understands that the coastal elites hate him, he really can’t blame them for the behavior of the cops in Nowheresville, Kansas.